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Jobless claims climb to 7-week high. Layoffs are still low, but the labor market might be cooling.

News Room by News Room
November 3, 2023
Reading Time: 2 mins read
0
Jobless claims climb to 7-week high. Layoffs are still low, but the labor market might be cooling.

The numbers: The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week rose by 5,000 to a seven-week high of 217,000, suggesting some softening in a sturdy U.S. labor market.

New jobless claims increased from a revised 212,000 in the prior week, the government said.

Claims still show a very low number of job losses, however, and point to a stable economy. Unemployment claims usually top 300,000 — and eventually go a lot higher — when a recession approaches.

Economists had forecast new claims in the week ending Oct. 28 to total 210,000.

Key details: New jobless claims fell in 27 of the 53 states and territories that report these figures to the federal government.

Claims rose in 26 states, with most of the increase taking place in Michigan and California. The spike in Michigan could be tied to striking auto workers.

The number of raw or actual claims — that is, before seasonal adjustments — posted a smaller increase and remained under 200,000 for the 11th week in a row. That’s an extremely low level.

The number of people collecting unemployment benefits in the U.S., meanwhile, rose by 35,000 to a nearly seven-month high of 1.82 million.

While that’s still a low number, it’s been rising since early September. That could be a sign that it’s taking longer for people to find new jobs, which would be further evidence of a slowdown in hiring.

Big picture: The labor market has cooled off, but it’s still pretty warm.

Businesses aren’t adding as many new jobs as they were last year, but they are holding onto most employees and not laying many people off amid the biggest U.S. labor-market shortage since World War II.

Looking ahead: “While layoff activity has not shown a pronounced increase, attempts to rejoin the work force seem to be increasingly difficult,” said Jefferies economist Thomas Simons.

“Businesses have been extremely reticent to let go of workers that they struggled to find over the last three years,” he said. “We doubt that they will be able to hold on to everyone indefinitely, but they’re going to try.”

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+1.70%
and S&P 500
SPX,
+1.89%
were set to open higher in Thursday trading.

Read the full article here

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