TOKYO (Reuters) -Almost half of Japanese firms see the prospect of Donald Trump winning a second term as president of the United States as a risk, a Reuters survey showed, as some polls show he is the frontrunner in November’s election. Companies say they are most concerned about protectionist policies. Trump’s “America First” policies characterised his tenure from 2017 to 2021.
Below are the questions and answers in the poll, conducted from Feb. 6 – Feb. 16, for Reuters by Research. Answers are denoted in percentages.
Percentage totals for a given question may not come to exactly 100%, due to rounding. The “polled” and “replied” figures are in absolute terms.
1. How are current business conditions at your company? (Pick one)
Good Not so Bad Polled Replied
good
All 26% 60% 14% 400 250
Manufacturers 20% 60% 21% 211 126
Non-manufactur 32% 61% 6% 189 124
ers
2. How do you see business conditions at your company in three months time? (Pick one)
Good Not so Bad Polled Replied
good
All 24% 66% 10% 400 250
Manufacturers 17% 71% 11% 211 126
Non-manufactur 31% 61% 8% 189 124
ers
3. How do you see the Chinese market over the next five years? (Pick one)
Very Somewhat Neutral Somewhat Very Polled Replied
optimistic optimistic pessimistic pessimistic
All 0% 4% 34% 50% 12% 400 239
Manufacturers 0% 2% 32% 52% 14% 211 126
Non-manufactur 1% 6% 36% 48% 9% 189 113
ers
4. What worries you most about China? (Pick one)
Economic Weak Deterioration in Real Anti-Jap Other Polled Replied
slowdown consumer China-US relations estate anese
sentiment over trade and market feeling
politics crisis
All 49% 2% 19% 24% 5% 2% 400 239
Manufacturers 50% 2% 22% 21% 3% 2% 211 125
Non-manufactur 47% 1% 16% 27% 7% 2% 189 114
ers
5. How are you responding to the economic slowdown in China? (Pick as many as apply)
Reining in Shifting Considering Returning Other Polled Replied
capital production and pulling out or capital to
investment sales to other shrinking Japan
markets operations
All 16% 35% 17% 8% 38% 400 208
Manufacturers 18% 49% 21% 7% 26% 211 112
Non-manufactur 14% 18% 13% 8% 51% 189 96
ers
6. How have your China revenues fared since the same period the previous year? (Pick one)
Increased No Fell Fell Fell Fell Polled Replied
change between between between more
1-10% 11-20% 21-30% than 31%
All 11% 47% 21% 10% 5% 6% 400 216
Manufacturers 11% 35% 22% 15% 7% 9% 211 116
Non-manufactur 11% 61% 19% 5% 2% 2% 189 100
ers
7. There is the possibility of a Trump administration after the U.S. election. Do you see this as a risk? (Pick one)
See it as Don’t see it See it as an Polled Replied
a risk is a risk opportunity
All 49% 47% 3% 400 235
Manufacturers 56% 41% 3% 211 122
Non-manufactur 42% 54% 4% 189 113
ers
8. If Donald Trump were to become president again, what would be your biggest concerns? (Pick as many as apply)
U.S.-China The impact of Impact Increasing Other Polled Replied
trade stronger on U.S. protectionism
friction anti-China domestic worldwide
trade sanctions strategy
All 37% 34% 15% 54% 7% 400 235
Manufacturers 32% 45% 19% 53% 5% 211 121
Non-manufactur 42% 23% 11% 54% 10% 189 114
ers
9. Are you considering making business plans on the assumption of a Trump presidency? (Pick one)
Considering Plan to No plans to Undecided Polled Replied
consider in consider
the future
All 0% 8% 60% 32% 400 238
Manufacturers 1% 12% 50% 37% 211 125
Non-manufactur 0% 4% 70% 27% 189 113
ers
10. As Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s approval rating remains low, there is talk of succession. Who do you think would be an appropriate next prime minister? (Pick one)
Shigeru Yuko Katsunobu Yoko Fumio Shinjiro Taro Yoshihide Sanae Yoshimasa Toshimitsu Kenta Katsuya Nobuyuki None of Polled Replied
Ishiba Obuchi Kato Kawakami Kishida Koizumi Kono Suga Takaichi Hayashi Motegi Izumi Okada Baba these
All 18% 0% 1% 12% 4% 6% 9% 12% 7% 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 23% 400 218
Manufacturers 18% 1% 1% 14% 4% 4% 13% 13% 7% 3% 4% 0% 1% 0% 17% 211 114
Non-manufacture 19% 0% 1% 10% 3% 8% 5% 12% 8% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 30% 189 104
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