Americans are going to the polls Tuesday in states including Ohio, Kentucky and Mississippi, but one state in particular stands out for its potential impact on the presidential race: Virginia.
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin — a former Carlyle Group
CG,
co-CEO — is hoping for a good night for his party, as the GOP is trying to gain full control of the state legislature. Republicans now control the House of Delegates, while Democrats are in charge of the state Senate. And while Youngkin’s name isn’t on the ballot, it “might as well be,” say analysts at the University of Virginia.
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With the presidential election a year away, a strong showing for the GOP in Virginia could result in the party’s presidential field expanding by one, says Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy.
“State legislative results could result in incumbent — and term-limited — Governor Youngkin shaking up the Republican [presidential] nomination race by entering it,” Haines wrote in a note.
“Potential Youngkin success in ‘purple’ Virginia could vault him into national prominence just in time for Republican [presidential] primary season, which still is more than two months away from its start,” Haines added.
Five GOP contenders are scheduled to debate in Miami on Wednesday night, as Nikki Haley’s star has been on the rise in polls. The former South Carolina governor still trails former President Donald Trump, however, as Trump leads in national surveys. Trump is planning to skip the debate and hold a rally in Hialeah, Fla.
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University of Virginia analysts, meanwhile, caution that conditions don’t necessarily make the GOP a shoo-in in today’s contests.
“Tuesday’s results will show if Virginians — or, at least the voters in the marginal districts — are comfortable giving [Youngkin’s] Republicans total control in an otherwise blue state,” analysts at the school’s Center for Politics wrote last week. “This is ultimately impressionistic, but this year doesn’t seem to have the ‘feel’ of 2021 in Virginia, when Youngkin and Republicans won the statewide offices and flipped the state House.”
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Virginia Democrats have sought to make abortion rights a top issue, and warned that GOP victory would end access. Youngkin has said he will pursue a 15-week abortion limit if Republicans win control of the legislature.
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