The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday released new data that showed American households are increasingly pessimistic about finding a new job if they lose their current job. It is the lowest level since the New York Fed began collecting data for the series in June 2013.
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its Survey of Consumer Expectations for August, which showed that the average perceived probability of finding a job if the respondent were to lose their current job plunged last month to a new low amid economic uncertainty.
The perceived probability of finding a new job if one’s current job was lost dropped 5.8 percentage points last month, falling to 44.9%.
“The decline was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, but it was most pronounced for those with at most a high school education,” the New York Fed explained.
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The August data also included data showing a slight increase in Americans’ expectations about losing their job in the next 12 months, as well as a lower probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next year.
The average perceived probability of losing one’s job ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 14.5%, which is above the 12-month trailing average of 14%.
At the same time, the average probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily declined by 0.1 percentage point to 18.9%, just below the 12-month trailing average of 19%.
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American households also see inflation rising over the next year, with median expectations for the next year ticking up 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% one year from August – a level that would be well above the Fed’s 2% target.
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Inflation expectations at the three- and five-year ahead time horizons were unchanged at 3% and 2.9%, respectively.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to release its consumer price index (CPI) inflation report for the month of August later this week.
The July edition showed headline CPI was up 2.7% from a year ago, while core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – was up 3.1% over the past year.
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