The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, jumped to 55.8 in November from 44 in the prior month. That’s the largest monthly gain since September 2020.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 46 reading.
This is the first reading above the 50 threshold for growth since August 2022. It is the highest level of the Chicago PMI since May 2022.
The index is produced by the ISM-Chicago with MNI. It is the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the national ISM data for November is released on Friday.
Omair Sharif, the founder and president of Inflation Insights, said he thought the surge reflected the end of the UAW strike and the resumption of activity in the auto sector.
“I think we could see a similar dynamic play out when we get the November ISM print tomorrow, although I expect to see a much more muted increase in the national factory gauge,” Sharif said.
Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc, cautioned that the Chicago PMI can be more volatile than the national ISM index.
Economists expect that the national ISM factory index will stay in contractionary territory, rising only to 47.7% in November from 46.7% in the prior month. Those forecasts came before the Chicago PMI was released.
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rose to 4.33%.
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